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2018 House · CA-25

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43.98% · Republican 48.4%

R+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 54.37% · Republican 45.63%

D+8.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.98 − 48.4 = -4.42
  2. Actual margin = 54.366 − 45.634 = 8.732
  3. Signed miss = -4.42 − (8.732) = -13.152
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.152| = 13.152

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56492, race ID 212 (538 database).