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2020 Senate · TX

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 48%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.87% · Republican 53.51%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 48 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.869 − 53.508 = -9.639
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-9.639) = -0.361
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.361| = 0.361

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71967, race ID 6295 (538 database).