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2020 Senate · KS

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 755 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 46%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.79% · Republican 53.22%

R+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.786 − 53.223 = -11.437
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-11.437) = 7.437
  4. Absolute miss = |7.437| = 7.437

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71673, race ID 6275 (538 database).