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2016 Senate · FL

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 815 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 51%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.31% · Republican 51.98%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 51 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.315 − 51.981 = -7.666
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-7.666) = -1.334
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.334| = 1.334

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47771, race ID 93 (538 database).