2024 President · Pennsylvania
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,527 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 48%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%
R+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.710) = 0.710
- Absolute miss = |0.710| = 0.710
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89275, race ID 8872 (538 database).
This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv