2024 President · Nebraska
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 1,194 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 55%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.86% · Republican 59.32%
R+20.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 55 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 38.858 − 59.318 = -20.460
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-20.460) = 5.460
- Absolute miss = |5.460| = 5.460
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88973, race ID 8845 (538 database).
This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv