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2018 House · NY-11

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 495 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40.49% · Republican 43.8%

R+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 50.40% · Republican 41.86%

D+8.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.49 − 43.8 = -3.31
  2. Actual margin = 50.397 − 41.858 = 8.539
  3. Signed miss = -3.31 − (8.539) = -11.849
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.849| = 11.849

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56476, race ID 448 (538 database).