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2018 House · GA-6

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 421 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.42% · Republican 44.32%

D+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.51% · Republican 49.48%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.42 − 44.32 = 2.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.512 − 49.482 = 1.030
  3. Signed miss = 2.10 − (1.030) = 1.070
  4. Absolute miss = |1.070| = 1.070

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56657, race ID 286 (538 database).