Polling error by election
How far the polls were from the certified result, by year and office. Lean is the average signed miss on the Democrat-minus-Republican margin.
| Election | Polls | Races | Lean (95% range) | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 SEN | 125 | 22 | 1.9 pts toward Democrats (1.1 to 2.7) | 3.1 |
| 2024 PRES | 227 | 35 | 2.0 pts toward Democrats (1.2 to 2.8) | 2.9 |
| 2024 HOUSE | 16 | 9 | 5.4 pts toward Democrats (1.0 to 8.6) | 7.3 |
| 2024 GOV | 17 | 5 | 4.3 pts toward Democrats (0.7 to 11.5) | 5.8 |
| 2022 SEN | 83 | 22 | 1.8 pts toward Republicans (-3.5 to -0.0) | 4.4 |
| 2022 HOUSE | 10 | 10 | 5.6 pts toward Republicans (-8.0 to -3.2) | 6.0 |
| 2022 GOV | 73 | 18 | 0.8 pts toward Republicans (-3.0 to 1.5) | 4.3 |
| 2021 GOVsmall sample | 8 | 2 | 0.3 pts toward Democrats (-0.3 to 1.9) | 2.1 |
| 2020 SEN | 95 | 24 | 4.4 pts toward Democrats (3.1 to 5.9) | 5.0 |
| 2020 PRES | 225 | 40 | 3.5 pts toward Democrats (2.6 to 4.3) | 4.3 |
| 2020 HOUSE | 18 | 16 | 6.4 pts toward Democrats (5.1 to 8.0) | 6.4 |
| 2020 GOV | 11 | 5 | 8.2 pts toward Democrats (5.7 to 19.1) | 8.8 |
| 2019 HOUSEsmall sample | 1 | 1 | 2.0 pts toward Democrats (2.0 to 2.0) | 2.0 |
| 2019 GOVsmall sample | 5 | 2 | 2.7 pts toward Republicans (-6.3 to -1.8) | 3.2 |
| 2018 SEN | 68 | 22 | 0.4 pts toward Democrats (-1.0 to 1.9) | 4.1 |
| 2018 HOUSE | 49 | 42 | 0.1 pts toward Democrats (-1.6 to 1.9) | 4.5 |
| 2018 GOV | 61 | 24 | 0.5 pts toward Democrats (-1.6 to 2.4) | 4.7 |
| 2017 SENsmall sample | 8 | 1 | 3.7 pts toward Republicans (-3.7 to -3.7) | 6.6 |
| 2017 HOUSEsmall sample | 7 | 3 | 0.1 pts toward Democrats (-5.9 to 3.6) | 4.2 |
| 2017 GOV | 20 | 2 | 5.0 pts toward Republicans (-6.3 to 0.1) | 5.3 |
| 2016 SEN | 87 | 33 | 3.8 pts toward Democrats (2.3 to 5.1) | 5.9 |
| 2016 PRES | 193 | 52 | 2.2 pts toward Democrats (1.0 to 3.4) | 4.2 |
| 2016 HOUSE | 15 | 12 | 6.4 pts toward Democrats (3.2 to 10.6) | 6.9 |
| 2016 GOV | 25 | 12 | 4.7 pts toward Democrats (1.3 to 7.0) | 7.1 |
| 2015 HOUSEsmall sample | 1 | 1 | 22.9 pts toward Democrats (22.9 to 22.9) | 22.9 |
| 2015 GOVsmall sample | 6 | 1 | 0.1 pts toward Republicans (-0.1 to -0.1) | 4.8 |
| 2014 SEN | 57 | 16 | 3.0 pts toward Democrats (0.5 to 5.1) | 4.5 |
| 2014 HOUSE | 19 | 16 | 1.2 pts toward Democrats (-2.2 to 4.7) | 5.3 |
| 2014 GOV | 62 | 19 | 2.5 pts toward Democrats (0.7 to 4.4) | 4.0 |
| 2013 SENsmall sample | 8 | 2 | 0.4 pts toward Democrats (-2.4 to 3.3) | 3.1 |
| 2013 HOUSEsmall sample | 3 | 1 | 12.0 pts toward Democrats (12.0 to 12.0) | 12.0 |
| 2013 GOVsmall sample | 7 | 2 | 1.4 pts toward Democrats (-5.9 to 6.9) | 7.1 |
| 2012 SEN | 84 | 24 | 4.1 pts toward Republicans (-5.5 to -3.1) | 4.8 |
| 2012 PRES | 183 | 35 | 2.0 pts toward Republicans (-2.6 to -1.1) | 3.2 |
| 2012 HOUSE | 20 | 13 | 2.2 pts toward Republicans (-5.1 to 0.7) | 5.2 |
| 2012 GOV | 19 | 7 | 2.4 pts toward Republicans (-5.6 to 0.4) | 4.6 |
| 2011 HOUSEsmall sample | 6 | 4 | 2.1 pts toward Republicans (-5.1 to 3.6) | 5.1 |
| 2011 GOVsmall sample | 2 | 2 | 3.2 pts toward Democrats (-1.5 to 8.0) | 4.7 |
| 2010 SEN | 102 | 25 | 2.4 pts toward Republicans (-4.4 to -0.4) | 4.7 |
| 2010 HOUSE | 33 | 28 | 0.5 pts toward Republicans (-3.5 to 3.0) | 7.1 |
| 2010 GOV | 83 | 25 | 0.4 pts toward Republicans (-2.2 to 1.7) | 3.5 |
| 2009 HOUSEsmall sample | 5 | 3 | 9.5 pts toward Republicans (-16.8 to 3.1) | 10.7 |
| 2009 GOV | 18 | 2 | 3.3 pts toward Democrats (3.3 to 3.4) | 4.0 |
| 2008 SEN | 53 | 20 | 0.7 pts toward Republicans (-2.7 to 1.1) | 4.3 |
| 2008 PRES | 155 | 34 | 0.3 pts toward Republicans (-1.4 to 0.6) | 2.8 |
| 2008 HOUSE | 20 | 17 | 0.9 pts toward Republicans (-4.3 to 2.3) | 6.0 |
| 2008 GOV | 16 | 7 | 0.9 pts toward Republicans (-3.2 to 1.1) | 3.8 |
| 2007 HOUSEsmall sample | 1 | 1 | 2.8 pts toward Democrats (2.8 to 2.8) | 2.8 |
| 2007 GOVsmall sample | 2 | 1 | 0.1 pts toward Democrats (0.1 to 0.1) | 2.5 |
| 2006 SEN | 84 | 24 | 1.9 pts toward Republicans (-4.2 to -0.1) | 4.5 |
| 2006 HOUSE | 40 | 33 | 0.6 pts toward Republicans (-2.8 to 1.5) | 5.2 |
| 2006 GOV | 68 | 29 | 0.3 pts toward Republicans (-1.9 to 1.4) | 4.3 |
| 2005 GOV | 10 | 2 | 3.6 pts toward Republicans (-4.0 to -2.7) | 3.6 |
| 2004 SEN | 57 | 20 | 1.5 pts toward Republicans (-3.6 to 0.5) | 4.3 |
| 2004 PRES | 168 | 35 | 1.2 pts toward Democrats (0.3 to 2.1) | 3.1 |
| 2004 HOUSE | 23 | 20 | 1.3 pts toward Republicans (-4.0 to 1.0) | 5.6 |
| 2004 GOVsmall sample | 8 | 5 | 1.2 pts toward Republicans (-3.4 to 1.7) | 2.7 |
| 2003 GOV | 12 | 4 | 0.2 pts toward Republicans (-9.0 to 4.2) | 5.7 |
| 2002 SEN | 62 | 19 | 2.8 pts toward Democrats (0.8 to 4.5) | 4.9 |
| 2002 HOUSE | 17 | 11 | 1.9 pts toward Democrats (-3.0 to 7.4) | 6.5 |
| 2002 GOV | 56 | 24 | 2.6 pts toward Democrats (0.8 to 4.1) | 4.7 |
| 2001 GOVsmall sample | 7 | 2 | 1.1 pts toward Democrats (0.9 to 1.2) | 3.0 |
| 2000 SEN | 81 | 26 | 3.0 pts toward Republicans (-4.9 to -0.8) | 5.0 |
| 2000 PRES | 161 | 43 | 1.9 pts toward Republicans (-2.9 to -0.5) | 4.2 |
| 2000 HOUSEsmall sample | 5 | 5 | 2.2 pts toward Republicans (-7.5 to 2.4) | 5.1 |
| 2000 GOV | 17 | 8 | 2.1 pts toward Republicans (-3.6 to -0.5) | 3.4 |
| 1998 SEN | 32 | 17 | 4.2 pts toward Republicans (-6.9 to -1.5) | 6.9 |
| 1998 HOUSEsmall sample | 2 | 2 | 2.8 pts toward Republicans (-7.0 to 1.3) | 4.1 |
| 1998 GOV | 40 | 22 | 5.9 pts toward Republicans (-7.9 to -3.4) | 7.5 |