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2020 Senate · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-12-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,064 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 52.2%

R+6.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 52.2 = -6.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = -6.70 − (2.080) = -8.780
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.780| = 8.780

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73835, race ID 7781 (538 database).