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2020 President · NC

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 1,082 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.59% · Republican 49.93%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.586 − 49.934 = -1.348
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.348) = -0.652
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.652| = 0.652

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72494, race ID 6238 (538 database).