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2016 President · FL

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 1,150 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.82% · Republican 48.68%

R+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.82 − 48.68 = -3.86
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = -3.86 − (-1.199) = -2.661
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.661| = 2.661

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48075, race ID 611 (538 database).