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2020 President · FL

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 1,054 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 49.4%

R+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 49.4 = -2.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = -2.10 − (-3.359) = 1.258
  4. Absolute miss = |1.258| = 1.258

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72806, race ID 6220 (538 database).