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2020 Senate · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2021-01-03 (2 days before the election) · 1,056 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 48.5%

D+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 49.39%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 48.5 = 0.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.613 − 49.387 = 1.226
  3. Signed miss = 0.90 − (1.226) = -0.325
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.325| = 0.325

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74006, race ID 8737 (538 database).