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2018 Governor · FL

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 2,543 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48.4% · Republican 46.1%

D+2.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.4 − 46.1 = 2.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = 2.30 − (-0.395) = 2.695
  4. Absolute miss = |2.695| = 2.695

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56638, race ID 138 (538 database).