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2016 President · PA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,300 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.51% · Republican 48.43%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.47% · Republican 48.18%

R+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.51 − 48.43 = -1.92
  2. Actual margin = 47.465 − 48.183 = -0.718
  3. Signed miss = -1.92 − (-0.718) = -1.202
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.202| = 1.202

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48629, race ID 640 (538 database).