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2022 Senate · AZ

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,094 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 48.2%

R+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 48.2 = -1.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = -1.50 − (4.888) = -6.387
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.387| = 6.387

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81629, race ID 8919 (538 database).