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2020 President · NV

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 1,024 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48.4% · Republican 49.1%

R+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.4 − 49.1 = -0.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.057 − 47.666 = 2.391
  3. Signed miss = -0.70 − (2.391) = -3.091
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.091| = 3.091

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72861, race ID 6244 (538 database).