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2021 Governor · NJ

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2021-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 1,085 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 45.2%

D+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.23% · Republican 48.00%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 45.2 = 4.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.225 − 48.002 = 3.223
  3. Signed miss = 4.20 − (3.223) = 0.977
  4. Absolute miss = |0.977| = 0.977

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77158, race ID 8988 (538 database).