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2020 President · FL

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 1,088 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.9% · Republican 49.6%

R+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.9 − 49.6 = -2.70
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = -2.70 − (-3.359) = 0.658
  4. Absolute miss = |0.658| = 0.658

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72342, race ID 6220 (538 database).