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2020 President · MI

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 1,025 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 46.5%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 46.5 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (2.784) = -3.384
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.384| = 3.384

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71170, race ID 6233 (538 database).