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2022 Senate · CO

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 1,084 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 46.1%

D+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 55.88% · Republican 41.27%

D+14.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 46.1 = 1.50
  2. Actual margin = 55.884 − 41.266 = 14.618
  3. Signed miss = 1.50 − (14.618) = -13.118
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.118| = 13.118

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81463, race ID 8922 (538 database).