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2020 President · AZ

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.4% · Republican 48.9%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.4 − 48.9 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (0.309) = -2.809
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.809| = 2.809

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72396, race ID 6214 (538 database).