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2024 President · North Carolina

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,091 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.2% · Republican 49.4%

R+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.2 − 49.4 = -3.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = -3.20 − (-3.212) = 0.012
  4. Absolute miss = |0.012| = 0.012

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89029, race ID 8839 (538 database).

population: lv