Skip to content

2022 Senate · OH

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,123 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 43.5% · Republican 53.9%

R+10.4

The certified result

Democrat 46.92% · Republican 53.03%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.5 − 53.9 = -10.40
  2. Actual margin = 46.923 − 53.035 = -6.112
  3. Signed miss = -10.40 − (-6.112) = -4.288
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.288| = 4.288

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81571, race ID 8942 (538 database).