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2024 Senate · Wisconsin

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 1,083 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 48.5%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 48.5 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (0.849) = -1.249
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.249| = 1.249

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88844, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: lv