Skip to content

2022 Senate · NV

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-24 (15 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 49.8%

R+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 49.8 = -4.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = -4.20 − (0.777) = -4.977
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.977| = 4.977

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81316, race ID 8937 (538 database).