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2022 Senate · WA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-27 (12 days before the election) · 1,207 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.4% · Republican 48.2%

D+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 57.15% · Republican 42.63%

D+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.4 − 48.2 = 1.20
  2. Actual margin = 57.148 − 42.630 = 14.518
  3. Signed miss = 1.20 − (14.518) = -13.318
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.318| = 13.318

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81347, race ID 8950 (538 database).