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2020 Senate · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2021-01-03 (2 days before the election) · 1,056 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48.4% · Republican 49.7%

R+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.4 − 49.7 = -1.30
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = -1.30 − (2.080) = -3.380
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.380| = 3.380

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74006, race ID 7781 (538 database).