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2024 President · Wisconsin

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 1,083 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.6% · Republican 46.8%

R+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.6 − 46.8 = -0.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = -0.20 − (-0.859) = 0.659
  4. Absolute miss = |0.659| = 0.659

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88844, race ID 8905 (538 database).

population: lv