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2018 Senate · MO

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,791 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.4% · Republican 48.3%

R+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.38%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.4 − 48.3 = -3.90
  2. Actual margin = 45.569 − 51.383 = -5.814
  3. Signed miss = -3.90 − (-5.814) = 1.914
  4. Absolute miss = |1.914| = 1.914

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56764, race ID 109 (538 database).