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2020 President · MI

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 1,034 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.9% · Republican 46.7%

R+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.9 − 46.7 = -1.80
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = -1.80 − (2.784) = -4.584
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.584| = 4.584

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71649, race ID 6233 (538 database).