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2016 President · MI

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,200 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.82% · Republican 48.52%

R+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 47.22% · Republican 47.44%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.82 − 48.52 = -1.70
  2. Actual margin = 47.216 − 47.439 = -0.223
  3. Signed miss = -1.70 − (-0.223) = -1.477
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.477| = 1.477

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48686, race ID 624 (538 database).