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2022 Governor · PA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 1,097 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.7% · Republican 45.4%

D+4.3

The certified result

Democrat 56.49% · Republican 41.72%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.7 − 45.4 = 4.30
  2. Actual margin = 56.486 − 41.715 = 14.771
  3. Signed miss = 4.30 − (14.771) = -10.471
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.471| = 10.471

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81511, race ID 8979 (538 database).