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2022 Governor · MN

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 1,091 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.8% · Republican 46.3%

R+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 52.27% · Republican 44.61%

D+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.8 − 46.3 = -0.50
  2. Actual margin = 52.271 − 44.607 = 7.664
  3. Signed miss = -0.50 − (7.664) = -8.164
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.164| = 8.164

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81162, race ID 8970 (538 database).