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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 1,084 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.8% · Republican 47.2%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.8 − 47.2 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (-0.217) = -0.183
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.183| = 0.183

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88807, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv