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2024 Senate · Nevada

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,082 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 44.8%

D+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 44.8 = 1.90
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 1.90 − (1.643) = 0.257
  4. Absolute miss = |0.257| = 0.257

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89039, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: lv