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2022 Governor · CO

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 1,174 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 41.8%

D+7.7

The certified result

Democrat 58.53% · Republican 39.18%

D+19.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 41.8 = 7.70
  2. Actual margin = 58.534 − 39.184 = 19.350
  3. Signed miss = 7.70 − (19.350) = -11.650
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.650| = 11.650

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81387, race ID 8957 (538 database).