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2022 Governor · OR

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,161 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 40.4% · Republican 41.7%

R+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 46.96% · Republican 43.54%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.4 − 41.7 = -1.30
  2. Actual margin = 46.960 − 43.543 = 3.417
  3. Signed miss = -1.30 − (3.417) = -4.717
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.717| = 4.717

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81285, race ID 8978 (538 database).