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2016 President · NV

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.01% · Republican 49.61%

R+4.6

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.01 − 49.61 = -4.60
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = -4.60 − (2.417) = -7.017
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.017| = 7.017

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48473, race ID 635 (538 database).