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2020 President · MN

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 1,065 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44.8%

D+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 52.40% · Republican 45.28%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44.8 = 3.20
  2. Actual margin = 52.395 − 45.285 = 7.110
  3. Signed miss = 3.20 − (7.110) = -3.910
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.910| = 3.910

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72339, race ID 6234 (538 database).