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2018 Senate · FL

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 1,484 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 49%

R+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 49 = -1.70
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = -1.70 − (-0.123) = -1.577
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.577| = 1.577

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56825, race ID 100 (538 database).