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2018 Senate · AZ

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 2,166 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.8% · Republican 47.1%

D+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 49.96% · Republican 47.61%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.8 − 47.1 = 2.70
  2. Actual margin = 49.956 − 47.611 = 2.345
  3. Signed miss = 2.70 − (2.345) = 0.356
  4. Absolute miss = |0.356| = 0.356

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56730, race ID 96 (538 database).