Skip to content

2018 Governor · OH

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,948 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.8% · Republican 42.2%

D+3.6

The certified result

Democrat 46.68% · Republican 50.39%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.8 − 42.2 = 3.60
  2. Actual margin = 46.683 − 50.387 = -3.704
  3. Signed miss = 3.60 − (-3.704) = 7.304
  4. Absolute miss = |7.304| = 7.304

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56828, race ID 155 (538 database).