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2020 Senate · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-12-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,064 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 50.2%

R+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 49.39%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 50.2 = -2.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.613 − 49.387 = 1.226
  3. Signed miss = -2.70 − (1.226) = -3.925
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.925| = 3.925

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73835, race ID 8737 (538 database).