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2020 Senate · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-12-25 (11 days before the election) · 1,022 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49.6% · Republican 48.8%

D+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.6 − 48.8 = 0.80
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = 0.80 − (2.080) = -1.280
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.280| = 1.280

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73906, race ID 7781 (538 database).