Skip to content

2018 Governor · NV

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 2,587 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.9% · Republican 47%

R+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 49.39% · Republican 45.31%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.9 − 47 = -2.10
  2. Actual margin = 49.394 − 45.310 = 4.084
  3. Signed miss = -2.10 − (4.084) = -6.184
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.184| = 6.184

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56723, race ID 151 (538 database).