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2022 Governor · NV

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2022-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,089 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.1% · Republican 48.6%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.1 − 48.6 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (-1.510) = -0.990
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.990| = 0.990

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81775, race ID 8972 (538 database).