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2024 Senate · Arizona

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 1,090 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48.5%

D+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48.5 = 0.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 0.50 − (2.406) = -1.906
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.906| = 1.906

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89388, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv