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2018 Senate · NV

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 2,587 respondents · IVR/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 48.9%

R+3.3

The certified result

Democrat 50.41% · Republican 45.38%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 48.9 = -3.30
  2. Actual margin = 50.412 − 45.385 = 5.027
  3. Signed miss = -3.30 − (5.027) = -8.327
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.327| = 8.327

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56723, race ID 112 (538 database).